FPL Gameweek 33 captain picks: should you captain Haaland at home, Salah against Brentford, or take a punt on a differential? We project the points ceiling and ownership percentage for each captain candidate in GW 33.

Why captain choice matters in GW 33

The captain scores double points every gameweek, which makes the captaincy decision worth 8-12 rank positions per week. In Gameweek 33, the top candidates are Haaland (home, MCI vs SHU), Salah (home, LIV vs BRE), Saka (away, ARS vs BHA) and Palmer (home, CHE vs WOL). The decision is harder than usual because two premiums (Haaland and Salah) are at home, and the temptation to captain both is strong — but you can only pick one captain.

Beyond the top picks, GW 33 has 3-4 differential captain options below 10% ownership: Son Heung-min (home vs EVE, projected 11 points), Cole Palmer (home vs WOL, projected 13 points), Alexander Isak (home vs BRE, projected 12 points). These differentials carry more risk (35%+ chance of blanking) but offer higher rank-climbing upside if they hit.

Our captain pick projection model combines xG (35%), xA (20%), clean sheet odds (15%), BPS history (15%) and ownership percentage (15%) into a single captaincy score. The weights are tuned monthly against the prior 8 gameweeks' actual captain performance.

Haaland captain projection

Erling Haaland has scored 18 Premier League goals in his last 12 home matches. Against Sheffield United's bottom-three defence, his projected points ceiling is 17. Ownership sits at 68% which means you cap him if you don't — you fall behind. The downside risk: 25% chance of blanking (2-4 points).

The case for Haaland: home fixture, best defence-to-attack differential in the league, highest xG per 90 among FPL forwards (0.82), BPS favourite for any match he scores in. The case against: high ownership means everyone has him, so a Haaland captain doesn't differentiate you from 6.8M other managers.

Our recommendation: captain Haaland if you need a safe pick to maintain rank. Captain Palmer or Son if you're chasing rank and willing to take 35% blanking risk. Captain Salah if you want a balance — projected ceiling 14 points, ownership 52%, lower blanking risk.

Salah captain projection

Mohamed Salah has 14 goals and 9 assists in 28 Premier League matches this season. His projected ceiling against Brentford is 14 points — lower than Haaland but with much higher xA per 90 (0.42). He is the second captain choice for 52% of India managers.

The case for Salah: balanced projected ceiling (14 points), strong BPS history at Anfield (he's won BPS in 8 of his last 12 home matches), Liverpool's home form is excellent (8W-2D-1L). The case against: Brentford are in form (3W-1D-1L in last 5), Liverpool may rotate in the international break aftermath.

Our recommendation: captain Salah if you already have Haaland and want to avoid ownership overlap. The 14 vs 17 points ceiling is acceptable if you're playing safe. For rank climbing, captain a differential instead.

Differential captain picks below 10%

If you want to climb rank fast in GW 33, captain Cole Palmer (home vs WOL, projected 13 points, 11% ownership) or Son Heung-min (home vs EVE, projected 11 points, 8% ownership). Both have a 25%+ chance of returning 12+ points. Risk: 35% chance of blanking.

Palmer has been in exceptional form — 4 goals and 3 assists in his last 5 matches. His xG per 90 is 0.69 (only behind Haaland among FPL assets). Chelsea's home form is good (5W-2D-1L). Captain Palmer if you're chasing top 10,000 OR.

Son has been quieter recently (1 goal in last 5) but his home record is strong (6 goals in 11 home matches). Everton are struggling (2W-2D-4L in last 8). Captain Son as a deeper differential — riskier than Palmer but lower ownership means higher rank gain if it hits.

GW 33 chip advice

If you're holding your bench boost for DGW 35 (April), GW 33 is a normal gameweek — bench boost is not recommended here (typical bench boost return in a normal GW is +15-20 points, vs +50-70 in DGW 35). If you haven't played your wildcard yet, GW 33 is a good time (after the international break, before DGW 33+).

Triple captain is also not recommended in GW 33 (normal gameweek, single fixtures). Save TC for DGW 35. Free Hit is only useful in blank gameweeks (BGW) — GW 33 is not a BGW.

The optimal GW 33 strategy: (1) captain your safest premium (Haaland or Salah), (2) make 1 transfer if you have a -4 hit coming up (use the free transfer), (3) don't play any chips. Save everything for DGW 35.

GW 33 transfer recommendations

If you have a free transfer and want to use it, the highest-value GW 33 targets are: (1) Mbeumo (BRE, 6.5M, projected 8 points, 8% ownership), (2) Solanke (TOT, 7.5M, projected 7 points, 12% ownership), (3) Rogers (AVL, 5.5M, projected 6 points, 4% ownership). All three are budget enablers with strong GW 33 fixtures.

If you're chasing rank, consider selling a premium who's blanking (e.g. Saka if he's blanked 2+ gameweeks) for a differential captain candidate (Palmer or Son). The -4 hit is worth it if the differential scores 12+ while the dropped premium scores 4-.

Beyond transfers, check your captain 1 hour before the GW 33 deadline. If your captain is injured or not starting, change to the vice-captain BEFORE the deadline. The auto-substitution rule only triggers if your captain plays 0 minutes — if your captain plays 10 minutes and blanks, you don't get the vice-captain's points.

GW 33 BPS winner predictions

Beyond the captain pick, the BPS (Bonus Point System) winner for GW 33 is likely to be one of: (1) the captain pick (if they score, they usually win BPS), (2) a creative midfielder with high key passes, (3) a defender with high clearances/tackles if their team keeps a clean sheet.

If you're chasing BPS specifically, target players who do 'the unseen work' — tackles, interceptions, clearances, key passes. These BPS factors can swing a gameweek by 3-5 points.

The BPS winner for GW 33: Salah (Anfield home vs Brentford, projected 6 BPS), Palmer (Stamford Bridge home vs Wolves, projected 5 BPS), Tarkowski (Everton away vs Aston Villa, projected 5 BPS for clean sheet + tackles). All three are good differentials beyond captain picks.

GW 33 transfer deadline priorities

If you have only 1 free transfer for GW 33, the priority targets are: (1) Mbeumo (BRE, 6.5M) — Brentford have a good home fixture, Mbeumo is in form, (2) Solanke (TOT, 7.5M) — Tottenham have a home game, Solanke is a budget forward with high ceiling, (3) Rogers (AVL, 5.5M) — Aston Villa home, Rogers is a budget midfielder differential.

Don't use your free transfer on a premium player — they're already owned by 40%+ of managers, so you can't differentiate by adding them. Use the free transfer on a budget enabler or a differential.

If you have 2 free transfers, consider: (1) selling a blanking premium + buying a differential captain (e.g. Saka out, Palmer in for -4 hit), (2) buying 2 budget enablers (Mbeumo + Rogers) to upgrade your bench before DGW 35.

Frequently asked questions